Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
